Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 10.774444 12.366398 14.085939 16.078009 18.318803 20.757942 23.610394
2025-04-13 7.949383 9.985864 12.362991 15.329616 18.918636 23.105295 28.342878
2025-04-20 6.919089 9.202686 12.001250 15.658485 20.284055 25.909521 33.235133
2025-04-27 6.118080 8.566529 11.700602 15.966760 21.576735 28.650755 38.186326
2025-05-04 5.360084 7.857877 11.181138 15.870195 22.249435 30.549347 42.074270
2025-05-11 4.698058 7.189834 10.626588 15.639296 22.674560 32.092486 45.525221
2025-05-18 4.229688 6.733031 10.300907 15.663417 23.403180 34.030981 49.554341
2025-05-25 3.878159 6.403780 10.114443 15.847663 24.336767 36.265818 54.068496
2025-06-01 3.523993 6.029629 9.820629 15.835361 24.961342 38.069560 58.033425
2025-06-08 3.182586 5.637968 9.460557 15.682874 25.347885 39.524319 61.536469
2025-06-15 2.946899 5.391716 9.299779 15.813040 26.149447 41.602697 66.021573
2025-06-22 2.808831 5.293154 9.361174 16.287553 27.494457 44.538658 71.897061
2025-06-29 2.552356 4.971755 9.041450 16.137221 27.866500 46.044603 75.728759
2025-07-06 2.204587 4.453619 8.349809 15.321017 27.114484 45.767084 76.792883
2025-07-13 2.091440 4.350217 8.356373 15.673020 28.279475 48.538876 82.727569
2025-07-20 1.979802 4.238009 8.336512 15.973241 29.367118 51.227056 88.634006
2025-07-27 1.820925 4.018238 8.104298 15.879536 29.771851 52.812660 92.813815
2025-08-03 1.658889 3.775296 7.808678 15.647515 29.916011 53.962786 96.313415
2025-08-10 1.544950 3.618389 7.660846 15.671997 30.505144 55.872721 101.137995
2025-08-17 1.459807 3.512937 7.602443 15.856209 31.383833 58.303486 106.924409
2025-08-24 1.359426 3.364483 7.447423 15.843946 31.899455 60.123616 111.732958
2025-08-31 1.252925 3.191391 7.228758 15.691370 32.142216 61.469434 115.764869
2025-09-07 1.183549 3.094726 7.157572 15.821604 32.915816 63.775544 121.545660